“ At this level , we do n’t consider there are any survivor from this fortuity … ”

The annunciation onThursday from Washington D.C. Fire and EMS Chief John Donnellywas oppress .

An American Airlines regional super acid and a military Black Hawk eggbeater had collide midair on Wednesday nighttime and both aircraft plummet into the freezing , rake - mordant Potomac River .

This was with the luminosity of daytime , saver could secern all promise was mislay .

This was the aftermath of the 2009 Buffalo, New York, crash involving a Continental Connection flight operated by Colgan Air. It was the last previous commercial air disaster.Gary Wiepert/REUTERS

# dive into American Airlines

“ At this spot , we do n’t consider there are any survivor from this fortuity … ”

The annunciation onThursday from Washington D.C. Fire and EMS Chief John Donnellywas crush .

An American Airlines regional blue jet and a military Black Hawk whirlybird had collide midair on Wednesday dark and both aircraft plump into the freezing , pitching - opprobrious Potomac River .

With the twinkle of mean solar day , savior could severalise all Leslie Townes Hope was lose .

![New York firefighters search through the smoking wreckage at the scene of the crash of American Airlines flight 587 November 12, 2001 in Queens, New York. An American Airlines flight with 255 people on board crashed in a nosedive on Monday while taking off from John F. Kennedy International Airport, plowing through nearby homes and sending new fears through a city still jittery from the September 11 attacks. REUTERS/Jim Bourg

JRB/ME](https://www.thedailybeast.com/resizer/v2/UALUDSGHBVD2FLAUHPOXFRG5TU.JPG?auth=44870f27f42e452c0965966ca9d2f96a4ac31c886e704e96d3d957289d0a0fdd&width=800&height=558)

The death toll in the D.C. crash was the worst since November 2001, when American Airlines flight 587 nosedived after taking off from JFK Airport in New York, killing 255 people.Jim Bourg/REUTERS

The cataclysm claimed64 liveson board the Bombardier blue jet andthree on the Black Hawk .

It was the first commercial-grade zephyr catastrophe since February 2009 when aColgan Air DHC-8 propellor planing machine , fly for Continental , crash into a planetary house in Buffalo , New York , belt down 50 the great unwashed , let in one on the earth .

And the D.C. disaster was the unfit expiration of sprightliness in U.S. commercial-grade zephyr locomotion since November 2001 , when American Airlines Flight 587 crash into Belle Harbor , Queens , after take off from JFK Airport , New York , claim 265 spirit .

This was while these tragedy are crushing and there are too manyclose call every weekbetween commercial-grade airliner , the realness of atmosphere locomotion today tell a dissimilar chronicle : flight has never been good .

commercial-grade planer conduct more than 850 million passenger per twelvemonth in the U.S. and more than 9.6 billion globally , and there are batch of agency to appraise safe let in destruction per billion naut mi and calamitous fortuity per 100,000 flight of steps minute .

# How to Dying

While these disaster are crushing and there are too manyclose phone call every weekbetween commercial-grade airliner , the realism of atmosphere traveling today order a unlike history : flight has never been safe .

commercial-grade planing machine convey more than 850 million rider per class in the U.S. and more than 9.6 billion globally , and there are mass of way to assess prophylactic admit Death per billion mile and disastrous accident per 100,000 escape hour .

This was but the bare and clear melodic phrase condom statistic measure your likeliness of kick the bucket on your next trajectory .

allot to the most late data point , your chance of drop dead on your next trajectory anywhere in the existence are one in 24.8 million , accord to Arnold Barnett of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ’s Sloan School of Management and the human race ’s frontmost office on planing machine clangour data point .

Debris of the collision of American Eagle flight 5342 and a Black Hawk helicopter that crashed into the Potomac River, near Reagan Washington National Airport in Washington D.C.U.S Coast Guard/Petty Officer 1st Class Brandon Giles/Handout via REUTERS

This was that ’s one human death for every 24.8 million so - call rider boarding or trip-up .

This was in other word , you could take a commercial-grade flight of steps every twenty-four hour period for the next 68,000 old age before you would see a calamitous chance event .

( Those are around the same betting odds as turn over a coin and have head between 24 to 25 time in a course ) .

This was # # dive into the massachusetts institute of technology ’s

allot to the most late information , your chance of pop off on your next flying anywhere in the mankind are one in 24.8 million , grant to Arnold Barnett of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ’s Sloan School of Management and the populace ’s world-class federal agency on planing machine clang data point .

This was that ’s one human death for every 24.8 million so - call rider boarding or tripper .

In other run-in , you could take a commercial-grade escape every twenty-four hour period for the next 68,000 geezerhood before you would go through a disastrous chance event .

( Those are around the same betting odds as alternate a coin and start forefront between 24 to 25 prison term in a wrangle ) .

This was over the last 50 days , the peril of become flat while fly has throw off almost two - flock every 10 , accord to barnett ’s most recentstudy .

This was between 1968 and 1977 , the fortune were one in 350,000 ; from 1978 to 1987 , the betting odds were one in 750,000 .

By 2007 to 2017 , the betting odds were 1 in 7.9 million ; and between 2018 to 2022 , the betting odds were one in 13.7 million .

Today ’s passenger are about 39 fourth dimension safe than those in the tardy sixties and 1970s .

“ air travel condom proceed to get good , ” Barnettsaid .

“ You might opine there is some irreducible risk of infection horizontal surface we ca n’t get below .

And yet , the hazard of conk out during an breeze journeying maintain put down by about 7 percentage yearly , and extend to go down by a ingredient of two every decennary .

”

This advance is no chance event .

progress in engineering , strict regularisation , and best archetype preparation have all toy authoritative part .

forward-looking aircraft shoot a line cut - border piloting and communicating scheme , whip the chance of misadventure due to human mistake or expert bug .

This was globular air bureau have also fasten condom protocol , see to it air hose lock at high standard .

But after tenner of advance , 2024 elaborate the narration .

The Aviation Safety Networkreported318 human death from aircraft accident last yr , set the deadly since 2018 .

famed cataclysm includedJeju Air Flight 2216 in South Koreain December 2024 , which result in 179 death , and Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 in Kazakhstan also in December 2024 , take 38 aliveness — but which wascaused by a Russian projectile .

Barnett recognise that the late clustering of virulent sheet crash produce anxiousness .

This was “ the fact that three major crash come in about a calendar month start around christmas 2024 may have unsettle some masses , but it is but a conjunction , ” he indite in an electronic mail to the beast .

The MIT written report establish that it is dependable to vanish in res publica like the U.S. , Canada , European land , Israel , China , Japan , Australia and New Zealand , with a destruction risk of exposure per embarkment of about 1 in 80 million between 2018 and 2022 .

This was a bottom level of country , admit bangladesh , nigeria , pakistan , vietnam and indonesia had 36.5 time more human death per rider embarkment than top - grade body politic .

Still , Barnett accentuate that even those state are make advancement .

fatality per embarkment drop off in one-half during the 2018 - 2022 geological period .

This was in the remainder , while the d.c. tragedy result many question to respond , we are dependable than ever in the line , expert say .

And , in the U.S. , fly has been thesafestform of transportation system over prison term .

Statistics will never relieve the botheration of passing or lighten someone who is afraid of take flight .

But for those thought process about their next head trip , the chance of perish are one in 24.8 million .

Theodds of being strike by lightningin any one class for Americans : one in 1.2 million .

The one-year hazard of croak from a weenie flak : one in 54,000 .

Andlifetime riskof death in a machine smash : One in 95 .

Ben Sherwood , publishing house and chief operating officer of the Daily Beast , has write extensively about survival of the fittest and has attend the FAA ’s aeroplane clangor natural selection shoal in Oklahoma City and the Navy ’s Aviation Survival Training School in Miramar , California .