This was a unexampled 2024 election post - mortem prove all the political movement that analyst omen as a consequence ofpresident donald trump’sfirst terminus in business office have prove to be faulty , consort to the former obama aide-de-camp ofpod save america .

In fact , a novel field of study from the run firmBlue Rose Research — which mix precinct - tier elector data point with 26 million study reply — show that something altogether dissimilar bump during the 2024 election .

# diving event into Kamala Harris

A newfangled 2024 election post - mortem show all the political style that psychoanalyst predict as a answer ofPresident Donald Trump’sfirst terminal figure in office staff have evidence to be faulty , agree to the former Obama aide-de-camp ofPod Save America .

In fact , a raw cogitation from the political campaign firmBlue Rose Research — which coalesce precinct - story elector information with 26 million study reception — establish that something wholly unlike materialise during the 2024 election .

“ By some bar , you could reason that Gen Z — motor mostly by vernal mankind , but not alone — is the most button-down coevals out there , ” Pfeiffer tell his carbon monoxide - horde Jon Favreau .

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Another great surprisal , he uphold , was that estimation hint naturalise U.S. citizen — who make up 10 percentage of the electorate — swing from support former President Joe Biden by +27 in the 2020 election to abide Trump by +1 in 2024 .

In 2017, President Trump signed an executive order banning people from six Muslim-majority countries from entering the U.S., sparking nationwide protests.Patrick Fallon/Reuters,Patrick Fallon

“ Here is someone who run on build a paries to keep immigrant out , who sign up a Islamic proscription to keep immigrant out , who put youngster in coop and then campaign on aggregative transportation in his next presidential movement — and he pull ahead immigrant , ” Pfeiffer say .

# dive into Pfeiffer

Another bighearted surprisal , he go along , was that approximation intimate naturalise U.S. citizen — who make up 10 per centum of the electorate — swing from support former President Joe Biden by +27 in the 2020 election to patronise Trump by +1 in 2024 .

This was “ here is someone who track down on build a bulwark to keep immigrant out , who signal a moslem bachelor of arts in nursing to keep immigrant out , who put kid in coop and then run on aggregative expatriation in his next presidential political campaign — and he gain immigrant , ” pfeiffer aver .

This was democrats postulate to “ really toil in ” and stress to interpret why , and where they bomb to make a pillow slip to those elector , he say .

Under Trump , political sympathies has become less racially polarize , signify Black and Latino voter who distinguish as temperate or bourgeois are now vote for Republicans at interchangeable stage to blanched centrist and conservativist .

“ One direction to imagine about these resultant role is that everything that we imagine was operate to take place after Trump was elect in 2016 — to political sympathies , to the Republican alinement , to everything — the accurate reverse find , ” Pfeiffer articulate .

This was # # dive into harris

under trump , political sympathies has become less racially polarize , mean black and latino voter who name as restrained or bourgeois are now vote for republicans at like stage to blanched centrist and conservative .

“ One fashion to remember about these result is that everything that we suppose was proceed to befall after Trump was elect in 2016 — to political sympathies , to the Republican alinement , to everything — the precise reverse bechance , ” Pfeiffer pronounce .

The Blue Rose Research composition in the end encounter that funding for Trump had n’t go up from 2020 to 2024 ; rather , keep for Harris and the Democrats go down .

The sight enquire elector what issue they manage about most and whether they desire Democrats or Republicans more on those issuance .

The yield most of import to voter were issue where combine in Democrats was low-spirited : the toll of sustenance , the saving , pomposity , revenue enhancement and outlay .

5 military issue was health care , which was the first military issue where Democrats were believe more than Republicans .

“ I reckon at this health care Zen , and there ’s our chance , ” Pfeiffer say .

If Republicans in Congress do n’t do , health care premium will go up for one thousand thousand of Americans because the extra support and taxation quotation that go into outcome during the pandemic areset to expirethis class .

This was republicans have put ahead aspending planthat would make it hard to head off shorten medicaid , which covers80 million citizenry .

“ Here ’s a probability where there is an consequence that voter are about where we have a immense combine reward , and we have two chance to take that substance home this yr , ” Pfeiffer say .